Examines the nature and extent of short-run changes in US imports resulting from NAFTA expansion. Presents four scenarios : a US-Chile FTA, a US-Andean Pact FTA, a US-MERCOSUR FTA, and an FTA encompassing US trade with all of the Latin American countries represented in the first three scenarios. Concludes that (1) the overall effects on US imports from NAFTA expansion to South America would be modest; (2) while overall increases in US imports from Latin America are small, certain sectors will see a significant increase in imports; (3) the question of likely growth in US exports to Chile, the Andean Pact and MERCOSUR remains to be investigated and may be significant in determining the strength of US political support for these FTAs; and (4) there will be a welfare gain from NAFTA expansion.

3/7/00 M2LMGR