00725nam a2200097Ia 4500080001100000100003100011245005800042260000900100520049700109583002100606  aSerial  aGourinchas, Pierre-Olivier  aStories of the twentieth century for the twenty-first  c2012  aStates that a key precursor of 20th century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage.  Notes that analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests domestic credit expansion and real currency appeciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises, regardless of the state of the economy.  Continues that for emerging economies, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis.  c2/16/12kSANDRAW