000			00772nam a2200121Ia 4500
080			_aSerial
100			_aGourinchas, Pierre-Olivier
245			_aStories of the twentieth century for the twenty-first
260			_c2012
520			_aStates that a key precursor of 20th century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Notes that analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests domestic credit expansion and real currency appeciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises, regardless of the state of the economy. Continues that for emerging economies, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis.
583			_c2/16/12 _kSANDRAW
942			_cA
999			_c35411 _d35411